Sunday, 12 October 2008

bird related market terms

An event that is extremely hard to predict. Generally associated with Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book, The Black Swan.

Black swan events are typically random and unexpected, and some think the current financial crisis is a black swan.

Before the discovery of Australia, it was assumed that all swans were white because nobody had seen one of a different shade.

Markets tend to work on the basis that black swans either don't exist or appear with such irregularity that they are not worth worrying about.

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